The state of the economy and real estate sectorin 2021 in Poland and across the globe. The main factors shaping the macroeconomic situation over the last year and in the years to come.

The pandemic put investment transactions on hold for a while, but after a brief period of disruption, things have got back on track. This won’t be a record year, but there shouldn’t be anything to grumble about either. The attractiveness rankings of individual market sectors have changed, but capital is still flooding into them. More and more players are therefore willing to build portfolios of attractive assets (mainly warehouse and residential). Unfortunately, the Polish government has actually hit the brakes –when it comes to REITs.

Holiday apartments have been breaking all the popularity records, students are returning to universities, bank deposits are continuing to generate losses, the total number of apartments for rent in Poland is still meagre... no wonder then that developers and PRS companies are getting on better as millions more are invested in both rental apartments and the tools for their commercialisation. But the word on the grapevine is that riches can’t be made from renting, and the new Polish tax deal is likely to stick in the craw of owners. Is it time for them to make an exit?

The changes proposed under the so-called 'Polish tax deal' represent one of the most wide-ranging tax reforms in Poland's recent history. Many of these changes will have a direct impact on the commercial real estate market. But which of them will have the greatest impact? How can we prepare for them in the best way? And are all of the proposed changes genuinely going to have a negative effect?

The ESG concept, sometimes referred to as ‘CSR 2.0’, has entered aheadynew stage. What standards should a real estate company aspire to in order to actually make a positive impact on the environment, the wider society and its own financial standing – and at the same time not limit its normal functioning? When is it possible to actually write ESG principles into a company’s DNA? And when is it just a clever marketing ploy, even tantamount to greenwashing?

It seems that home office, which we were all choking on at the beginning of the pandemic, has only proven to work in the short term: it’s impossible to run a company from a distance permanently –or so consultancies and employers tell us, as they try everything to lure employees back to their offices. But despite the official optimistic line, this process has been slow. What kind of offices are needed to encourage employees to return? And where is the record interest in coworking space and serviced offices coming from?

The retail sector has been making up for its losses during the lockdowns and is now busy working on regaining its former turnover, refreshing its tenant mixes, and investing in F&Band entertainment zones. Is a return to the good old days even possible? Or maybe the pandemic has permanently changed our habits in favour of online shopping? Retail parks have emerged from the crisis unscathed (or maybe even strengthened?) to surprisingly become a tasty morsel for the investment market. Will shopping centres ever be able to follow in their footsteps? And to what extent has the pandemic permanently changed the relationship between tenants and landlords?

As e-commerce’s slice of the retail pie continues to grow, nearshoring has returned to the fore and the largest tenants now need thousands more square metres to expand. It’s little wonder then that warehouses – like homes in previous years – are now being built by everyone, tempted by the prospect of easy leases and quick sales. Are any game-changers likely to emerge from among the new players to threaten the current leaders? And will this boom – like the housing boom of the past – affect the quality of projects?